kurt's nightmare

Generally, I post once a week. Topics are randomly selected and depend mostly upon whether it's baseball season or not. Other topics will include sex, politics, old girlfriends, music, and whatever else pops into my little brain. If you'd like to read, or ignore, my blog about China: http://meidabizi.blogspot.com/

Location: Dayton, OH, Heard & McDonald Islands

I'm an Associate Professor of Philosophy at the University of Dayton. I represent no one but myself, and barely do that. I'm here mostly by accident.

Tuesday, April 18, 2006

Sir Albert

A baseball entry, so there goes half of my readership. See ya, Kirsten.

Anyway, it is getting to the end of the semester, which means grading, grading, and grading. Then some more grading. So most of this information comes courtesy of another blogger, Tybalt, who has taken Bill James's statistical analysis known as the "favorite toy," to indicate some of the probablities of what Albert Pujols might accomplish in his career. It should be noted that this year he has gotten off to an incredible start, and this year's numbers are not included in the analysis (so everything would be a little bit better). Tybalt, conveniently enough, has marked the current records, so you can see what Pujols's chances are of breaking them.

The point is that Pujols may well replace Bonds as the player in the game who can change its entire structure, how the other staff approaches pitching, etc.. (And we don't need to mention--or do we?--that he is evidently steroid- and attitude-free, a good teammate, and well-liked: these are not things that one tends to associate with Bonds.) Something special is going on in St. Louis; had Walt Jocketty followed my advice and gotten rid of Edmonds, maybe the Cardinals' offense wouldn't drop off so dramatically after Rolen. If one of the outfielders steps up and becomes productive, this offense could well take off. If not, it will be close in the NL Central. In any case, you have to love the fact that, according to Bill James's method, Pujols has a 5% chance of hitting 900--indeed, NINE hundred--home runs.

Here are Tybalt's results (established level is what Pujols has shown he does on a regular basis, more or less).

HITS (Has 982, Established Level of 198)
2000 86%
2500 67%
3000 38%
3500 21%
4000 9%
4257 4% <-- Record

DOUBLES (Has 227, Established Level of 45)
500 83%
600 57%
700 35%
793 21% <-- Record

HOME RUNS (Has 201, Established Level of 43)
500 79%
600 47%
700 28%
756 20% <-- Record
800 15%
900 5%

RBI (Has 621, Established Level of 120)
1500 73%
1700 50%
1800 42%
2000 28%
2200 18%
2298 14% <-- Record
2400 11%
2500 8%
2700 2%

Runs (Has 629, Established Level of 132)
1500 82%
1700 61%
1800 51%
2000 36%
2200 25%
2296 21% <-- Record
2500 13%
2700 7%


Anonymous Frodo said...

I like going to baseball games and watching Sunday afternoon games on TV. Dozing off on the sofa as the game moves into the late innings. Tranquility base. But alas the Kansas City area has lost the shine right off our shoes when it comes to baseball. Their season is already over with the first long road trip yielding 9 straight loses. OUCH! I will probably start seriously take up Cardinals baseball. Between you and my brother in-law who makes 3 or 4 pilgrimages to St. Louie. I get more Card news that Royal blues. I work in Missouri so I should support the east side team too. And they come to town twice a year now. You should come out for that game it is a full house with more red than blue.

10:54 AM  
Blogger kmosser said...

It's a 10 game losing streak now.

I started listening to the Cards in 1966, on KFEQ (St. Jo's), with Harry Carey. The A's sucked and about to leave; the Cards the next year won the Series. The choice was pretty easy.

When the Royals came, the Cards weren't available on the radio anymore, so I became a big Royals fan (with the various forms of anguish that brought, often via the Yankees). But when I moved to Austin, I had the choice--AL or NL? I went back to the Cards, and have never left.

9:51 AM  
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