Final Four

OK, I got one half of the bracket correct (UNC vs. KU); I also picked a couple of upsets (Western Kentucky, Villanova). In general, my brackets look like they've gone through a Cuisinart. UCLA suprised me, although they came awfully close to losing to A & M, and there are some folks in College Station (or, as my Dad likes to call it, Malfunction Junction) none too happy about how that game concluded. Memphis also played extremely well, with surprising discipline; they clearly were underrated by me. I think I'm guilty of not liking the program there, a prejudice shared with many I hear and read on this topic (the same was true of Huggins at Cincy and KSU): the programs recruit incredibly talented athletes, but they can be a bit thuggish at times (this Memphis team not as much as in the past, or Cincy's team) and, well, as at many programs, academics might take a back seat. Details. If Memphis plays like it did against Michigan State, I don't see how they lose.

In any case, before my picks, I will add that I think I get stupider listening to Billy Packer. Given the three options of listening to him, ignoring him, or always believing the contrary of what he says, I'm confident the first option kills brain cells. I'm not sure about the other two, but imagine if one got more intelligent simply by negating a given source of information. This would be useful.

Digression: I know, it sounds like a strategy to use with Bill O'Reilly. Last night O'Reilly said in consecutive sentences that the US has never done x, and that the US did x but it was ancient history. This was in the context of the claim that the US government would introduce a disease to unsuspecting citizens. They have never done that; they did that, but the Tuskegee experiments were ancient history. End of digression.


UNC vs. Kansas

Soap opera city, babeee! The KU fans--me included--probably need to get over Roy Williams going to Chapel Hill. Self is a great coach, Williams is an honorable man and put KU back on the map after it had been floundering (in spite of Larry Brown's visit). I know that UNC has Hansborough, although he should have gone to Kansas, much closer to his home (beautiful Poplar Bluff). I know they have tons of great athletes, and I'm not sure if anyone other than maybe Collins can stay up with Lawson. But I'm going out on an irrational limb, and picking Kansas. If they play as tight as they did against Davidson, they may get run out of the gym. Sometimes you just have to see which Kansas team shows up. I'm hoping for the one that beat Texas for the Big 12 Championship. But this will be a game time discovery. I can see them being within 5 points at half, and going on to win, especially if they can stop some perimeter shooters or getting one or two Tar Heels into foul trouble. I can also see Arthur with 3 fouls in the first 12 minutes, and the entire second half devoted to making the score less horrifying. Again, we'll just have to see. Go Hawks.

Memphis vs. UCLA

A lot of folks are picking UCLA here. I've consistently picked against UCLA, and consistently been wrong. I see no reason to stop now. The standard claim is that UCLA and Ben Howland's defensive genius can stop Memphis from doing what it wants. I think that may well be false. I don't see UCLA scoring much, and I don't see them stopping a lot of transitional baskets. They may also have trouble if Memphis does some pressing to speed up the game. UCLA could win if Memphis can't figure out how to deal with Love, or at least minimize the damage he can do, and if it hits a good number of outside shots. But the latter has been problematic, and the sheer athleticism of Memphis may pose serious problems for UCLA. I'm very much looking forward to this game; an interesting clash of basketball philosophies, as it were. I pick Memphis.


Championship Game

Somehow, I can imagine KU beating UNC, but UNC playing Memphis in the Final. I think I've been reading too much Walt Whitman.

As Jay Bilas has correctly pointed out, the way teams play at this stage of the tournament can vary widely from week to week. UCLA played great last week, and not so great the week before. This makes the Final Four and Championship game tricky to predict. In spite of all reasoning, evidence, logic, and sanity, I'm going with my Jayhawks. (For those betting, this means put it all on the Bruins to take the whole thing.) KU over Memphis.